What the 2021 Census says about Bobcaygeon
A straight reading of the numbers, five years on from 2016 — and what to watch for when the 2026 results land.
Statistics Canada publishes a detailed profile of Bobcaygeon after every census. Comparing the 2016 and 2021 releases gives 439 matched indicators covering population, age, housing, income, language and work. This briefing sets out what those numbers say, without dressing them up.
One definition matters before anything else. These figures describe Bobcaygeon population centre — the built-up settlement only. They exclude the surrounding rural area and shoreline properties within the City of Kawartha Lakes. The boundary did not change between the two censuses, so the years are directly comparable, but the geography is smaller than most people mean when they say “Bobcaygeon.”
Population, 2021
3,576
+1.4% since 2016
Median age
67.0
+2.1 years
Share aged 65 and over
54.7%
+4.9 points
Average dwelling value
$662,000
+57.8% after inflation
Population: essentially flat
Bobcaygeon’s population rose from 3,525 to 3,576 — fifty-one people in five years, or 1.4%. Over the same period the City of Kawartha Lakes grew 5.1% and Ontario grew 5.8%.
Population growth, 2016 to 2021
Bobcaygeon grew at roughly a quarter the rate of its own municipality.
Table view
| Category | Growth |
|---|---|
| Bobcaygeon | 1.4% |
| City of Kawartha Lakes | 5.1% |
| Ontario | 5.8% |
Statistics Canada, 2021 Census Profile.
The housing numbers say the same thing. Total private dwellings actually fell slightly, from 1,906 to 1,895. Occupied dwellings rose, from 1,714 to 1,740. Very little was built; what changed is that about 37 dwellings that had been sitting empty — seasonal properties and vacancies — became someone’s home.
Age: past the halfway mark
Median age rose from 64.9 to 67.0. The share of residents aged 65 and over passed half the population, moving from 49.8% to 54.7%. Residents aged 15 to 64 fell by 165 people, a drop of 10.6%.
Share of population by broad age group
The working-age share fell 5.3 percentage points in five years.
Table view
| Category | 2016 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 14 years | 6.5% | 6.7% |
| 15 to 64 years | 44.0% | 38.7% |
| 65 years and over | 49.8% | 54.7% |
Statistics Canada, Census Profile 2016 and 2021 (100% data).
Tracking each age group forward five years shows where the change came from. In a population with no migration, every cohort would shrink slightly through deaths. Instead, several grew.
Net change in each age cohort, 2016 to 2021
Following each five-year age group forward five years. A closed population would show small negatives only; positives mean people moved in. Hover any bar, or open the table view, for exact figures.
Older cohorts are omitted here because mortality dominates them: ages 70–74 in 2016 fell by 10, 75–79 by 45, 80–84 by 60, and 85-and-over by 185. All counts are randomly rounded to a multiple of 5, so movements under 10 are within rounding.
Table view
| Category | Net change |
|---|---|
| 0–4 → 5–9 | +5 |
| 5–9 → 10–14 | +5 |
| 10–14 → 15–19 | -10 |
| 15–19 → 20–24 | -5 |
| 20–24 → 25–29 | +10 |
| 25–29 → 30–34 | +5 |
| 30–34 → 35–39 | +20 |
| 35–39 → 40–44 | +5 |
| 40–44 → 45–49 | +10 |
| 45–49 → 50–54 | +20 |
| 50–54 → 55–59 | +60 |
| 55–59 → 60–64 | +75 |
| 60–64 → 65–69 | +50 |
| 65–69 → 70–74 | +30 |
Statistics Canada, Census Profile 2016 and 2021 (100% data), author’s calculation.
The gains cluster in one place: people who were 45 to 69 in 2016. The 55-to-59 group gained 75 people as it aged into its sixties; the 50-to-54 group gained 60. Departures are modest by comparison — the largest is ten teenagers.
Bobcaygeon is therefore not aging because young people are leaving in numbers. It is aging because the people moving in are in their fifties and sixties, arriving at or near retirement, and replacing residents who die. That produces a stable headcount and a steadily older customer base at the same time.
Employment: a snapshot taken during a lockdown
The census measures labour force status in the week before Census Day. In 2021 that was May, during an Ontario stay-at-home order. The recorded unemployment rate of 17.0%, against 8.3% in 2016, reflects that week rather than the structure of the local economy.
Employment and where people worked
Measured in the week before Census Day — May 2021, during an Ontario stay-at-home order.
These figures come from the 25% long-form sample. In a settlement this size that is roughly 900 responses, and 2021 response rates were lower than 2016.
Table view
| Category | 2016 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|
| Employed residents | 995 | 875 |
| Commuted to a workplace | 920 | 620 |
| Worked at home | 60 | 255 |
| Self-employed | 155 | 195 |
Statistics Canada, Census Profile 2016 and 2021 (25% sample data).
Three figures are worth noting even with that caveat attached. The number of residents who worked at home rose from 60 to 255. The number commuting to a workplace fell from 920 to 620. And self-employed residents rose from 155 to 195, while employees fell from 920 to 805.
Whether the shift in work location persisted past May 2021 is not something the census can answer. It is one of the clearest questions the 2026 release will settle.
Income and housing: two different directions
Census income figures refer to the calendar year before the census — 2015 and 2020. All the changes below are restated in 2020 dollars.
Real change after inflation, 2015 to 2020
Every figure restated in 2020 dollars using the annual average Consumer Price Index (+8.2% over the period).
Census income data reports the calendar year before the census: 2015 for the 2016 Census, 2020 for the 2021 Census. 2020 was the CERB year, and federal pandemic transfers raised measured incomes across Canada.
Table view
| Category | Real change |
|---|---|
| Average dwelling value | +57.8% |
| Average government transfers | +13.3% |
| Median household income | +8.4% |
| Median rent | +3.7% |
| Average household income | +0.2% |
| Median owner shelter cost | -0.2% |
| Average employment income | -11.8% |
Statistics Canada, Census Profile 2016 and 2021; CPI from Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0005-01.
Median household income rose 8.4% in real terms. Average household income was flat at 0.2%. When the middle rises and the average does not, the distribution has compressed from the bottom.
The two rows underneath explain why. Average employment income per recipient fell 11.8% in real terms, while average government transfers per recipient rose 13.3%. 2020 was the CERB year. The income gain visible in the census is largely transfer income, not higher local earnings, and the transfers have since ended.
Housing moved differently. The average dwelling value rose 57.8% after inflation, from $387,765 to $662,000. Monthly carrying costs did not follow: median owner shelter costs were flat in real terms, helped by low mortgage rates and by the fact that 63% of owner households here have no mortgage at all. Renters — 415 households, down from 435 — paid 3.7% more in real terms.
What the census does not tell you
- Counts are randomly rounded to a multiple of 5 to protect confidentiality. Movements of five or ten in small categories may be rounding alone, and components do not always sum to their totals.
- Income, occupation, industry, education and commuting come from the 25% long-form sample, roughly 900 responses here, with lower response rates in 2021 than 2016. Industry-level shifts — retail, accommodation and food, health care — sit on base counts under 100 and were measured during a lockdown that closed the sectors showing the largest declines. They will not support an argument.
- Statistics Canada changed several classifications between 2016 and 2021, including household type, marital status, family characteristics and low income. Those characteristics are not directly comparable across the two years.
- There is no business-formation or business-count data in the census profile. The rise in self-employment is the closest available proxy, and it is a sample estimate.
The 2026 Census is already in the field
Collection began on 4 May 2026, and on previous cycles the first population and dwelling counts have followed roughly nine months later. That release will do something this one cannot: separate what was pandemic distortion from what was real.
Four questions it should answer for Bobcaygeon:
- Did the working-from-home shift hold, or did commuting return to 2016 levels?
- With CERB gone, where does household income actually sit?
- Did the 50-to-69 in-migration continue through the pandemic housing market?
- Did the population finally grow, or is 1.4% per five years the new baseline?
Prepared August 2026 from Statistics Canada Census Profile data for Bobcaygeon [Population centre], Ontario (DGUID 2021S05100077). Inflation adjustment uses the annual average all-items Consumer Price Index for Canada, Statistics Canada Table 18-10-0005-01 (126.6 in 2015, 137.0 in 2020). Comparative population figures for Ontario and the City of Kawartha Lakes are from the Statistics Canada Census Profile web data service.